Successful sports bettors know that there is one important thing in betting: the numbers. My own sports betting strategy system is based on numbers, there are no silly emotions, half baked ideas, or gimmicky concepts like so many other books out there. When you look at the National Football League, the studies show that there is another bias that could be useful to bettors, and it happens late in the football season. This simple advantage? Well, it has to do with the home team.

Overall it’s a terrible sports betting strategy to follow, with winning percentages falling well below the needed 52.4% needed to make even the smallest profit with 10 cent juice. However, research has shown that later on in the NFL season the Home Underdog play starts to make more sense.

If you wait until week fourteen a wager on the home underdog will just cover 51.4 percent of the time, and that is a losing idea. However, after week fourteen that amount jumps up to a profitable sixty percent. That is a big advantage to have on your side so late in the season. If you are blessed enough to find a home ‘dog in the playoffs, these come in at a success rate of nearly 78 percent.

Some more points to think about: playoff games offer a restricted schedule, not as many options for parlays or teasers – the weather is a bigger factor, so be sure you are careful about playing a warm weather team that is on the road.

In his research about late in the season home ‘dogs, Professor Borghesi of Texas State discovered that there is a large number of wins by home underdogs to put together a winning plan. When studying national football leage games from the early 80′s to the late 2000′s he learned that the later season home teams bet the spread by nearly five points. You still must remember that there are not that many games to select from so the test sample is quite small, but there were enough to build a trend. During the playoffs the home team won games by an average of eleven points.

This may have you asking how this all lines up against the early weeks. Statistically, away teams win by zero point nine points when you take into account all of the games. In the later weeks (fifteen through eighteen) however, the home teams win by an average of two point six points, and home teams in the play off games win by about two point eight-six points. Gambling late home ‘dogs was profitable during each of the five year segments that were studied during this time.

The bottom line is it doesn’t pay off to buy into the hype about a certain sports betting strategy or hot tips. But when you do find one that works, and has worked over a long period of time, you’d be foolish not to take advantage of it

Rich Allen is an expert in Sports Betting Strategy and has worked for Las Vegas and Atlantic City books. His Sports Betting Professor Systems have sold over 250,000 units and cover all major sports. Download a FREE copy of The Sports Betting Insider’s Guide at: http://richallensports.com/sports-betting-strategy

Tags: Sports, Sports Betting, Sports Betting Strategy

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